Predictions today · Tennis
Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar prediction
November 4, 2026 · 09:00 UTC · Tennis · ATP
Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — tennis, ATP. Kickoff November 4, 2026, 09:00 UTC. Below: the market odds, how much the biggest Polymarket players have put on this match and where. PrognosX tracks big sports bets by smart wallets and shows every result, losses included.
Chance = market price; odds = 1 / price.
No big bets by tracked wallets on this match yet. They often come in the last hours before kickoff.
Teams: Tommy Paul · Daniel Merida Aguilar
Match preview
The Polymarket market makes Tommy Paul the favourite: 74% chance, odds 1.34. Odds: Tommy Paul — 1.34, Daniel Merida Aguilar — 3.92. The line has barely moved in the last 24 hours. The chances add up to 100%: the market margin is about 0.0% (bookmakers usually take 4–8%). Over 30 days, big pre-game bets by tracked whales in ATP: 86, 49 won (57%). $10 on each would be −$71 after fees. Copying every whale is not a strategy — that is why PrognosX picks Smart whales (they beat the closing line).
Questions about the match
For many matches: Pinnacle's fair odds next to Polymarket — where Polymarket pays more, and where whales bet into that value. Compare plans
Who will win Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar?
By market prices on Polymarket, Tommy Paul is the favourite with a 74% chance. That is the crowd's estimate, not a guarantee.
What are the odds for Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar?
Tommy Paul — 1.34, Daniel Merida Aguilar — 3.92 (decimal odds = 1 / Polymarket price). They change until kickoff.
Do whales win in ATP?
Over 30 days, big pre-game bets by tracked whales in ATP: 86, 49 won (57%). $10 on each would be −$71 after fees. Copying every whale is not a strategy — that is why PrognosX picks Smart whales (they beat the closing line).
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How we make this page
Odds are live Polymarket prices (1 / price). Whale money is real on-chain bets by tracked wallets — every one can be checked. Which side they took is shown after kickoff. Before the game — in the app. We show losses too: how we tested 634,000 whale bets · daily predictions.
Updated 19:13 UTC. 18+. Not betting advice.
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