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Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar prediction

November 4, 2026 · 11:30 UTC · Tennis · ATP

Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — tennis, ATP. Kickoff November 4, 2026, 11:30 UTC. Below: the market odds, how much the biggest Polymarket players have put on this match and where. PrognosX tracks big sports bets by smart wallets and shows every result, losses included.

Teams: Tommy Paul · Daniel Merida Aguilar

Open the match in the app

Match preview

The Polymarket market makes Tommy Paul the favourite: 78% chance, odds 1.29. Odds: Tommy Paul — 1.29, Daniel Merida Aguilar — 4.44. The line has barely moved in the last 24 hours. The chances add up to 100%: the market margin is about 0.0% (bookmakers usually take 4–8%). $2 505 has already been traded on this match on Polymarket, $14 108 is waiting in the order book. Over 30 days, big pre-game bets by tracked whales in ATP: 86, 49 won (57%). $10 on each would be −$71 after fees. Copying every whale is not a strategy — that is why PrognosX picks Smart whales (they beat the closing line).

Questions about the match

Who will win Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar?

By market prices on Polymarket, Tommy Paul is the favourite with a 78% chance. That is the crowd's estimate, not a guarantee.

What are the odds for Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar?

Tommy Paul — 1.29, Daniel Merida Aguilar — 4.44 (decimal odds = 1 / Polymarket price). They change until kickoff.

Where do the whales bet on Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar?

Tracked big wallets have put $384 on this match (1 wallets). Which side — in the PrognosX app, or on this page after the game.

Do whales win in ATP?

Over 30 days, big pre-game bets by tracked whales in ATP: 86, 49 won (57%). $10 on each would be −$71 after fees. Copying every whale is not a strategy — that is why PrognosX picks Smart whales (they beat the closing line).

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How we make this page

Odds are live Polymarket prices (1 / price). Whale money is real on-chain bets by tracked wallets — every one can be checked. Which side they took is shown after kickoff. Before the game — in the app. We show losses too: how we tested 634,000 whale bets · daily predictions.

Updated 19:50 UTC. 18+. Not betting advice.