"What is Polymarket: prediction markets explained simply"

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market. Instead of stocks, people trade outcomes of events: “will the team win”, “over 2.5 goals”, “who wins the election”.

Price is probability

Each outcome is a share that finally pays either $1 (if it happens) or $0. Until the event is decided, the share trades somewhere in between. If “Real Madrid to win” costs 65 cents, the market puts the chance at about 65%.

Converting to decimal odds is easy: odds = 1 / price. 65 cents is odds of about 1.54; 25 cents is 4.0.

How it differs from a bookmaker

• You trade with other people, not the house. Buyers and sellers move the price.
• You can exit before the end. Bought at 40 cents and the price went to 70 — you can sell and take the difference.
• Everything is public. Trades are on the blockchain, so big bets are visible — that's how whale trackers like PrognosX work.
• Settlement is in USDC, a dollar stablecoin.

Good to know

Access to Polymarket is restricted in some countries — check that it is legal where you live. Fees and rules depend on the market. Most importantly: prediction markets are still betting, and you can lose money.

Why watch Polymarket even if you don't trade there

Polymarket prices are the opinion of thousands of people with real money. A sharp price move or a big bet from a known player often happens before the news reaches bookmakers. That's why PrognosX shows not only the bets but also a market map of where the money is today.