"CLV: the number that separates smart bettors from lucky ones"

A month of profit can be pure luck. That's why professionals judge themselves by another number — CLV, closing line value.

In plain words

CLV shows whether your price was better than the price at kick-off. The closing price is the market's most accurate estimate: by then it includes all news, line-ups and big money.

Example: you bought “Arsenal to win” at 50 cents (odds 2.0). By kick-off the price rose to 58 cents (odds 1.72). You beat the market — positive CLV, +8 cents.

Why it matters

• If you consistently beat the closing price, you are very likely profitable in the long run — even if the next ten bets lose.
• If CLV is negative, any profit is most likely luck and won't last.
• CLV is visible immediately, profit only after hundreds of bets.

How to calculate

For prediction markets: CLV = pre-match price − your price (in cents). For odds: your odds / closing odds − 1.

CLV and sharps

In our analysis of signals, sharps had a small but positive pre-match CLV of about +0.3 cents. The copier was already negative: by the time a copy reaches the market, the price has moved. That's why speed matters and why PrognosX shows “what the delay cost” on every signal.

Betting is risky, 18+. Positive CLV improves your long-run odds but guarantees nothing.