PrognosX Academy

We rebuilt 634,000 whale sports bets over 90 days. Copying every whale loses about 5% after fees — in every sport and at any size. Whales themselves are about break-even: Polymarket is an efficient market. Big money is not smart money, and a wallet's past profit predicts nothing.

The one thing that holds up: wallets that consistently buy cheaper than the price right before kick-off (Smart). Almost all of their edge is in bets placed in the last 2 hours, at odds 1.33–2.2, outside football — about +15% per bet on history. That is our “⏱ Late Smart”.

🟢 Green — late Smart. Stars for tennis, a $2,000+ whale bet, Smart 5+, the last hour, odds 1.43–2.0 and conviction (the whale bet twice their usual size). With 3+ stars about 78% won on history. 🟡 Yellow — still being tested, small size. 🟠 Orange — the price has already moved away from the whale: don't buy at market, only a limit order.

Kelly: share of bankroll = (chance × odds − 1) / (odds − 1). It grows a bankroll fastest — but only if the chance is known exactly. We can only estimate it, so we stake a small part: 1–3% of the bankroll. If the true chance is 6 points lower than on history, full Kelly burns the bankroll two times out of three, while 3% stays in profit.

If the price has moved away from the whale, overpaying eats the whole edge. On Polymarket: “Buy” → switch “Market” to “Limit”, enter the whale's price, expiry before kick-off. Limit orders pay no fee. Filled — good; not filled — you simply didn't overpay. Or wait for our 🔔 when the price comes back.

CLV is how much better your odds are than right before the game. You took 2.10 and it closed at 1.90 — you beat the market, even if the bet lost. A steady positive CLV is the main sign of a real edge. Your score is “🧠 My Smart” in My bets.

Even at 75% winners you will see 3–5 losses in a row — that is normal. Don't chase and don't go all-in. The “ladder” (rolling all winnings into the next bet) does not raise your chances: one loss wipes it out. A daily limit and a pause after losses protect the bankroll.